14 Factors In Evaluating the Winning Chances of First-Time Starters

Bullet Point Handicapper
Jun 11, 2020
2 min read

Updated: Jul 13, 2024

(In My Priority Order – Yours May Differ)

1. Connections; what has the trainer’s winning % been with first-time starters?

a. Alternatively, does the trainer win with first-time starters “off the farm”, i.e., with few published workouts?

2. Pari-mutuel life; is the first-time starter getting bet in the pari-mutuels?

3. Workout frequency; how frequent have the workouts been?

4. Have there been any significant Interruptions in training (greater than 28 days?)

5. Workout regularity; how many days have there been between workouts?

6. Workout distances; have they been progressing to an appropriate distance considering the distance of today’s race (e.g., roughly 3F for a 4-5F race, 4F for 5 1/2-7F race, 5F for races >7F.)

a. How many workouts were at an appropriate distance?

7. Workouts average pace in seconds per furlong; have they been decreasing?

8. How many workouts have been designated as “bullet” or “rocket” workouts?

a. How many are both (which I call “laser” workouts.)

9. Workout surface; has the horse worked out well over the same exact surface of the race?

a. Alternatively, has the horse worked out well over a similar type of surface as today’s race?

(e.g., Dirt vs. Turf, vs. AWS, or fast vs. muddy, or firm vs. yielding, etc.)

10. Workouts out of the gate; has the horse had at least one workout from the gate since the training re-start date?

a. Has the horse had too many workouts from the gate, suggesting problems getting used to the gate?

11. Bloodlines; how good has the sire been in producing first-out winners?

12. Rider; what is the winning % and ROI of today’s rider/trainer combination?

13. Has there been an unusually high yearling auction sale price for this horse?

14. Does the workout pattern info graphic roughly portray a “C” shape since the training re-start date?

The Equine Kinematic Graphics attempts to display most of the necessary information to answer these questions.

14 Factors In Evaluating the Winning Chances of First-Time Starters

(In My Priority Order – Yours May Differ)

1. Connections; what has the trainer’s winning % been with first-time starters?

a. Alternatively, does the trainer win with first-time starters “off the farm”, i.e., with few published workouts?

2. Pari-mutuel life; is the first-time starter getting bet in the pari-mutuels?

3. Workout frequency; how frequent have the workouts been?

4. Have there been any significant Interruptions in training (greater than 28 days?)

5. Workout regularity; how many days have there been between workouts?

6. Workout distances; have they been progressing to an appropriate distance considering the distance of today’s race (e.g., roughly 3F for a 4-5F race, 4F for 5 1/2-7F race, 5F for races >7F.)

a. How many workouts were at an appropriate distance?

7. Workouts average pace in seconds per furlong; have they been decreasing?

8. How many workouts have been designated as “bullet” or “rocket” workouts?

a. How many are both (which I call “laser” workouts.)

9. Workout surface; has the horse worked out well over the same exact surface of the race?

a. Alternatively, has the horse worked out well over a similar type of surface as today’s race?

(e.g., Dirt vs. Turf, vs. AWS, or fast vs. muddy, or firm vs. yielding, etc.)

10. Workouts out of the gate; has the horse had at least one workout from the gate since the training re-start date?

a. Has the horse had too many workouts from the gate, suggesting problems getting used to the gate?

11. Bloodlines; how good has the sire been in producing first-out winners?

12. Rider; what is the winning % and ROI of today’s rider/trainer combination?

13. Has there been an unusually high yearling auction sale price for this horse?

14. Does the workout pattern info graphic roughly portray a “C” shape since the training re-start date?

The Equine Kinematic Graphics attempts to display most of the necessary information to answer these questions.

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